Tuesday, November 24, 2009
News Coming
There is actually a lot to talk about (all very good) regarding BillMyParents, including the launch of the debit card. Soft launch of the debit card is set to hit prior to end of the year, maybe sooner. We also will be seeing quite a few celebrity endorsments. Not to mention, despite liquidating (due to a court order regarding a divorce) of one of the top shareholders, many others have been buying.
I will try to update in the next week with some more specific news....
Sunday, August 9, 2009
SCLW Buzz- New member joining?
I also understand theres talk of a big name X games sports figure along the lines of a Travis Pastrana or Tony Hawk also coming on board in some way. We will see if this is just talk or real news probably within a couple weeks. Despite the selling we have had last week, SCLW continues its strong hold on .70 ish. Won't take much to push it, and maybe this news will be it.
Saturday, July 11, 2009
SCLW Conference Call July 15th 1:15 PDT
Subject: Socialwise Conference Call
Starts: Wednesday, July 15th at 1:15 pm (PDT)
Duration: 45 minutes
Conference Call
Conference Dial-in Number: (712) 775-7000
Participant Access Code: 307396#
When prompted enter the access code that has been assigned, followed by the # key. Once connected to the conference, you will be able to talk and have access to the touch tone commands
Hope to catch you there.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Media campaign and Socialwise Ticker Change
This also will include a media campaign kicking off next week!
Here we are:
Old Ideaedge Ticker: IDAE
New Socialwise Ticker: SCLW
IDAE -Socialwise Continues Strong
No doubt we are moving northbound, and strong.
Saturday, May 9, 2009
Strong Bid Support
One thing I want you to notice is that the buyers are taking their time and pulling in as many sellers as possible. This is why you have a nice up day, scattered by some smaller down days. This reflects, in my opinion some strong institutional buying. We are finally past the dog days and off the floor, heading upward.
I still see this as a GREAT time to get in. Especially for those who need to dollar cost average down. With the BMP launch, I see no reason why we shouldnt see .80 to $1 in the very short term. Im going to predict we should be to 52 week highs again by August.
Email or post comments with any questions.
Friday, May 8, 2009
Now coming! Socialwise Launch of BMP (Bill My Parents)
I expect with the launch we should see a large increase in volume on the shares, even from its current increase. Why? I have a feeling that many of the institutional buyers are still waiting till the product is out, to pull the trigger on a large position. This is coming from some comments I have heard over the last few months outside the company.
Despite the share price, believe it or not there is an awful lot of anticipation about IdaeEdges BMP launch in the investment community. Will it be easy to use? Will it work? Will the word get out quickly and grow exponentially? How will the media react?
These are all valid questions for the investment community to ask. I think the answer to these questions will all be positive.
I do know one thing, that this launch will be with the second version of BMP...right or wrong, I guess it could be labeled BMP 2.0. It is my understanding that they had a fully working version at the beginning of the year, but thought they could make it much better and easier, so they decided not to announce the launch of the first version. That would line up with Jim Collas' thinking. He (and the rest of the team) are always trying to improve on what they have. Now with the date looming, and the company on track, anticipation and excitment is at an alltime high.
Be excited folks, the future of Socialwise, and our investment, is nearly here.
Friday, April 24, 2009
New Market Maker on Tap
R.F. Lafferty & Co. Inc. Launches Market Making Division
Veteran Market Making Team Hired as Part of the Firm's Continued Expansion
NEW YORK, NY--(Marketwire - April 21, 2009) - R.F. Lafferty & Co. Inc. today announced that it has launched a new division dedicated to market making. The new division will specialize in providing broker-dealers, institutions and existing clients with increased liquidity and order handling capabilities. This new service further extends the scope of R.F Lafferty's robust platform, which is continually being built out as part of the company's ongoing growth strategy.
The new division will be led by four seasoned market making veterans, formerly of Westminster Securities Corporation, who collectively bring over 60 years of experience to the firm. Kevin Malone, John O'Connor, Matthew Palmer and Ezra Grayman will lead the new market making division along with Jeffrey McLaughlin who brings his retail and institutional business expertise to the firm.
"Market Making has become an important space as clients seek more transparency in the current economic environment. Our commitment to expanding the firm's suite of services will prove to be an added benefit for our clients," said Robert Hackel, Chief Operating Officer at R.F. Lafferty & Co. "We continue to proactively identify and recruit the industry's best talent and most experienced teams, and we are pleased to have attracted Kevin, John, Matt, Ezra and Jeff as they will be instrumental to the success of the firm's new market making division."
About R.F. Lafferty & Co., Inc.
Founded in 1946, R.F. Lafferty & Co. is a leading boutique securities firm and investment adviser providing clients with a wide range of services including financial advisory, retail and institutional brokerage, asset management and investment banking services. Headquartered in New York, the firm specializes in serving small and mid-sized companies and investors. For more information, please go to www.rflafferty.com.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Strong Volume Day
FYI, I can tell you where the selling IS NOT coming from, and that is the insiders.
Keep an eye out.
Let me know if you have any questions.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Revised look at BMP - Bill My Parents
Bill My Parents- New Investor Media link
I have to tell you the first time I heard the idea back in June, IDAE was pursuing its other business plan simultaneously called Bill My Parents, I knew it was a home run. Jim Collas calls Teen, Tween credit/debit cards and payment systems the next frontier, just like cell phones for kids 10 years ago, and I must agree.
Like one financial guru once said "If you want to be extremely wealthy, all you need to do is find out where everyone is heading and get their first" IDAE is doing just that, putting themselves in a position to be first to market with a viable teen payment system.
Currently, Socialwise has focused the majority of their resources to Bill My Parents (BMP) because the management believes the BMP platform has a higher ceiling and marketability.
With a little research, its easy to see why.
Whats Bill My Parents?
BMP simply will allow a parent(s) to verify and approve/ disapprove a transaction of an item their kid(s) have requested. The next phase will include a debit card for kids that gives parents an enormous amount of control, and keeps it simple and convenient.
The first priority will be building an online store using a top retailer like Amazon to sell top selling products and offering the BMP platform as a payment option. This is perfect, since they will not need to try and find top sellers, or stock items, just use the retailer to promote their BMP product! Then BMP will get a cut of the sale, around 10%.
Lets break down the market.
First off parents are far more likely to buy non essential items for their kids then themselves, even if it means sacrificing their own desires. This is true even in a down market.
Lets look at one area of focus for the BMP product: video games, a multi, multi billion dollar industry.
Think about marketing a video game. Currently the video game companies need to try to target a small group in their advertising approach. Generally they cannot advertise to parents, since parents really dont always know which games their kids like. So what they stick with is marketing to late teens to early thirties to capture the market that will respond to the ad and have money to buy the product. This is their main market. Of course younger groups will see an advertisement and bug their parents till their parents buy it for them, but this is only a bonus.
You must note, some of these games, and gaming systems will sell out in hours or days. We are talking MILLIONS of copies at $30-$60 each (not including gaming systems and controllers which can easily hit $400 or more)
So what if a gaming company could advertise directly to the 10-18 yr. old group? Basically BMP solves this problem for every company in this situation. They can market right to the younger kids and advertise "Buy this now with BMP". With the excitement about this market, IDAE has secured lots of discounted ads. This is a nice first step.
Now lets put this into revenue terms, since really thats all we care about.
From the numbers that have been thrown out there, the big target for payment systems is 3 Million users. This is using other companies who have been acquired. With the BMP application alone, this could translate into about $900,000,000 in acquisition value alone, or better yet $18+ per share. (this does not include Ideaedge's social gifting platform only BMP)
How realistic is 3MM users?
With the marketing plan using the social networking platform, typically a “hot” application can reach over a million users in days. With the top applications reaching tens of millions in weeks. I think 3MM users through social networking and other ads in a reasonable time is VERY realistic. In fact, as great as this application is, I believe 3 Million is a very small number to the overall market. These are not hopeful numbers, but very realistic.
Now the other part of the BMP plan.
Bill my Parents Debit card:
Personally I think this is the golden Egg. The crème de la crème of the youth payment systems. A way to give your kid money, without giving them your card (Got your attention now?) Imagine loading your kids card with $200 and being able to:
- block undesirable merchants
- specify a safe merchant list that they can use,
- limit amounts at any merchant,
- monitor the card
- …oh and FREEZE (or unfreeze) the account at anytime with a simple text message or email. (When your kid gets grounded, why should they have the ability to spend money?)
Now add being able to simply add amounts to the debit card and parents have full control. These cards can be used anywhere MasterCard is used. Imagine the possibilities. I think this is where the company is headed for the long term. This in fact is a viable payment system for young people.
As far as numbers and profit, The market figures value at $1000 per user is reasonable for payment systems. So this means in terms of acquisition, 1MM debit card users would value that part of the business at 1 Billion. As far as profit, I haven’t been able to find any solid numbers, but you figure someone charging $1000 a year on average would be reasonable. (Note: this can be used for all a child’s purchases over a year, from school clothes and supplies, to gifts for friends and family). Credit card companies charge merchants anywhere from 1.5%-3%+ for transactions, so I would think realistic revenue from that would be anywhere from 0.5%-1%.
5 Million users = $250,000,000 - $500,000,000
10 Million users = $500,000,000- $1 Billion
I don’t see why the profit wouldn’t be at least 20% maybe higher given the outsourcing that Socialwise has (I think they are figuring at least that). If thats the case we are talking profit in the $50MM to $200MM plus range.
Compare just this one small part (the Debit card) of Socialwise to "Heartland Payment Systems"
Heartland does 85MM in EBITDA and still holds a market cap of over $300MM! (thats after a 50% decline in the last 8 weeks.)
Alone if the Socialwise Debit card achieved the numbers above and translated into a value of 350MM in market cap, that would spell out over $7 a share.
Are you beginning to see the big picture?
Now add that to the BMP platform (not to mention social gifting) and the numbers are staggering. This is a legitimate multi billion dollar company.
I think what is really exciting is this is just one business plan of IdeaEdge's that they are executing, and does not include social gifting which I already hit on earlier. Combined there is no reason in my mind they wont be able to rival a payment system such as Paypal.
Check out the site
Bill my Parents
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Storm is Brewing for Socialwise
Why this is important, EVEN if the share price hasnt increased, is this is absorbing all the shares out there that have been on the market....prepping the stock for a major run. Etrade was on the ask for awhile along with several others, whom have disappeared. What you must realize is there is very few shares out there in the float that are not in long holders hands. My guess is around 1.5MM. That is still probably less than $1MM in stock that is even available (while price increasing during a buy)! All for a company that has greatly increased in value over the last 6 months.
This tells us we have in fact found bottom....only up from here! Im just jealous of the people that have been picking up shares at these prices!! ;-)
Let me know if you have any questions.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Holding Ground
Now that the markets are beginning to settle, people will begin to look for places to put their money. Being more careful on the OTCBB market will limit their choices. However once Socialwise reveals their BMP platform a lot of investors should quickly come aboard. I am pretty confident that once the move starts, it will happen quick.
Monday, April 6, 2009
How Socialwise is Different than the typical smallcap
There is a reason why so many involved are so excited. Every time I see Jim Collas, and the rest of the management, they are extremely inspired. They dont worry about the current price, because they know what they have!
Why is Socialwise so different? Thats a great question. First lets eliminate what Socialwise (IDAE) is not:
1)A PUMP and DUMP
Clearly if this was a pump and dump, we would be sitting a lot lower than .40. However, I prefer facts. Fact: the stock float has not even doubled from its extremely low 3.9MM shares in over 12 months. Fact: No new shares are being dumped and/ or sold off in large unaccounted for numbers. Fact: The original IR firms are still with the company. Fact: its at .40, when it could easily be at .01
2)HYPE- A pipe dream of success.
Small cap companies usually fall in these first two catagories. Sure a company may have a great idea, but no real solid plan to execute. Its usually the "if" we get just one major player to "buy (sign, partner, etc), then the company wont look back.... it happens only once in a thousand (or less). Others have a great plan/product but lack leadership to see it through. This represents probably over 95% of small caps, and why, unless you know what your doing, you shouldnt invest in small caps.
3)No WAY of maintaining a market-
Sure you can have all the right ingredients above but lack the one real thing....a viable way sustain a market and longevity. This is usually due to outside forces.
I want to talk about #3. This is where Socialwise is VERY different. Sure it has the potential to make it as a multi billion dollar company with a leadership team that you find in Mid caps ,if your lucky, but thats not what I want to focus on. Many companies have potential, but never do make it.
So what usually destroys small caps that has done everything right? (as in great product, excellent planning, a strong management team, working capitol and keeping the share structure tight). It can be things we dont see coming.
Lets start with the short list (if you think of more please let me know):
Private Funding- The torpedo that has sunk many great small companies. Bringing in start up money that turns toxic. Whether its a convertible note that allows the shares to dramatically increase if the share price dips, or a investor that cuts his/her losses at anytime they feel threatened and put the stock in a situation that it cannot recover. Socialwise doesnt have any of these. So far the investors have remained very solid.
Bureaucracy- This has destroyed many a start up. When your product or company is strong enough to put a dent in major industries they are typically squashed. A billion dollar company finds it in its best interest to take care of problems before they get big. Put enough pressure and they can easilly shut down a small cap thats running on a shoestring budget. Some great new start ups have burned millions while the bureaucracy machine pressed them. No this isnt conspiracy, it really does happen.
Ideaedge (Socialwise) is in a industry that doesnt have (much) bureaucracy. In fact the field is wide open when it comes to payment systems. The industry is actually hungry for new ones. This is why we had the tech boom....it was a new industry without the Bureaucracy and many new great products, ideas and intellectual properties.
Competition- A great idea thats not kept quiet by a small company can quickly invite major player to execute it before the small company realizes what hit them.
Heres the deal,Socialwise owns the patent to their two intellectual properties. Who can compete with them? Not many. They kept everything so quiet that they are going to be first to market, no matter who tries to beat them. Since they have so many relationships formed with many major players, they actually are too far ahead of anyone who would try to compete to make it worth while. You want to be first to market to have a name recognition. For this reason alone this is most exciting. This also invites the mergers and acquisition talk by a major player once you show your company profits are growing and promising to be very big.
This company is unique. I hope you understand the position that we are in. Not only is everything lining up, but we also have a strong shareholder base. This will help the stock stay strong once the company begins to make its numbers and is profitable.
I dont see any reason to doubt. In fact its a great time to add. You will be glad you did later.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Bill My Parents (BMP) Ready
San Diego, CA – March 24, 2009 - Socialwise, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of ideaEDGE, Inc. (OTCBB:IDAE), and developer of integrated e-Commerce payment solutions and social network group gifting platforms, today announced that it has finalized the production version of the company’s BillMyParents payment system, and is poised to "go live" with key e-Commerce partners. Uniquely created by Socialwise, BillMyParents is the safe and secure way to allow children to shop online while parents retain control.
To prepare for launch, Socialwise has completed extensive testing of the BillMyParents youth payment system and related Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) that will be integrated into popular social network applications and online e-Commerce environments. The company is launching with several leading social network application publishers/developers and online web-based casual gaming companies that cater to the teen demographic. Socialwise expects that BMP will be fully integrated with these partners within 60 days.
"We believe that BillMyParents will be a great benefit for kids, and a valuable tool for parents and online merchants, said Jim Collas, CEO of ideaEDGE, Inc. "To date, the BillMyParents concept has been very well received by potential partners in the social networking space and the e-Commerce world. BillMyParents will enable online merchants to capture a piece of the estimated $40 billion in sales transactions that are currently lost because some kids don’t have a payment method for safe and responsible online purchasing. With one solution, BillMyParents meets the needs of all parties in the value chain – with helpful and trusted services for everyone."
Concurrent with planned launch activities, Socialwise is working on continued enhancements to the system. These improvements include adding more security features and enhancing performance, scalability and ease of use, with the goal of establishing BillMyParents as the preferred payment utility for kids and parents.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Another new Corporate Update
Click on this link: Link to ideaEDGE, Inc. Audiocast - March 19, 2009
Feel free to leave any comments or questions
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Holding strong
Still waiting for the uptick in volume. That will be the key to the run. Look for a day of 100k volume, and I believe this will be the start of a nice uptrend.
Let me know if you have any questions
Saturday, March 7, 2009
Short Selling
Short selling has its place, and its wrong to paint normal short selling as a evil practice. In this case it can actually be a plus for us (especially if you were one of the buyers). In a strong up day, many short sellers will cover only adding fuel to the fire (of buying). It will be interesting to see when the next big news hits, or next 100K share (with strong buying) will bring. I think we might be surprised.
Friday, March 6, 2009
Small Caps are the next move
This Motley Fool article just proves my point:
"Look, I'm a firm believer that large caps should be at the foundation of every equity portfolio. But if you're like me -- you have a long-term time horizon (15-plus years), and capital appreciation is your primary investment objective -- you need small-cap stocks. There are no two ways about it.
What's more, small caps tend to outperform large caps by a wide margin after a market bottom. In a down market like this, it pays to give small caps more attention. Once the market recovers, you'll be glad you did."
For starters, unless you've made a concentrated effort to gain small-cap exposure in your portfolio, you may well be under allocated in this asset class. And that's a mistake: Small-cap stocks give investors the best chance at outperforming the market over the long haul. NYU professor Aswath Damodaran found that from 1927 to 2001, the smallest companies outperformed the largest ones with a 20% annual return versus 12% on a value-weighted basis. Many of the most successful small caps were:- Underfollowed on Wall Street.
- Led by dedicated founders.
- Financially strong.
- Well-managed.
- Dominant in their market niche.
These were traits shared by the likes of Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) and Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV) early on, and they turned out to be some of the best stocks of our generation. Fifteen years from now, it's very possible that we'll look back at some of today's small caps and wonder how we missed those massive opportunities."
To read the full article go here:"Buy a small cap Stock"Thursday, March 5, 2009
Holding Steady in a Crazy Market
Most blue chips are down at least 30-40%, and small caps are not fairing as well. Obviously this includes IdeaEdge. However there is some good news in all this turmoil, at least for us.
The good news:
Its nice to see that IDAE has maintained its support level at above .40 for the last few weeks. Since the float has increased to over 6MM from 3.9MM, I am surprised to see so many people continuing to hold. Volume has dropped off, but this is a good thing in a turbulent market.
The best part is many funds, institutions and investors have gone into cash and are waiting for the right time and stock to jump into. As Socialwise/Ideaedge picks up steam, it may find a good number of investors looking to recoup their losses.
I still expect IDAE to run hard once it begins moving. Who knows, maybe even past its previous highs. In this market, that would be nice.
Friday, February 27, 2009
Social networking and Gift Cards- Exciting Possible revenue
Although I will explain in more detail, If you dont understand any part of this concept, please see the investor media from IdeaEdge. Jim Collas does a better job of laying it out.
The Social gifting business plan was before "Bill My Parents" (if you havent read that blog, its a must.) and is the basis of the company originally going public. "Bill My Parents"was originally a back up plan (imagine that?) mainly to solve a problem with group gifting (how to target teens).
Fortunately here we are today with two viable business plans that will all but guarantee IdeaEdge (Socialwise) success.
Gift cards are a HUGE and growing business. In fact, majority of all gifts given today are gift cards. They are more personal and safer than cash, and guarantee you wont screw up a birthday/wedding Etc. too bad.
This is where IDAE comes in.
IdeaEdge's platform allows people on social networks such as Facebook to donate toward a gift card of the recipients choice. This is done using a group gift concept (although it can still be individual). The gift card of choice (lets say "Gap clothing store") can be requested by the recipient or one of their friends or family (average user has 120 friends).
To hopefully help you understand I'll use an example:
Say its my birthday and I decide I want a Gap gift card. First I pick IDAE's application (Called the "Group Gift card") on my Facebook page, sign up, and request from my friends that they donate to the Gap card(Basically it tells them I want a Gap card for my birthday). Lets say you are one of my friends on Facebook. As one of my friends, your own Facebook home page tells you its my B-day, and encourages you to give to me using the Socialwise (IdeaEdge) application.
This simplifies the process of gift cards. Just think, even if my friends knew I wanted a Gap gift card, they would normally still have to go out and buy one. Then I get stuck with several Gap gift cards with various amounts. With Group Gifting it is all on one card that everyone donates too. What is even better is generally someone would be embarrassed to give a $5 gift card, but in a group setting on social networking it would no longer be viewed as cheap. In this climate being able to give $5 instead of giving more than you can afford (or nothing at all) is a real bonus.
Now, instead of 1 person giving me a $100 Gap gift card 20 people can give $5 and I still get a $100 Gap gift card or another of my (or someone else) choice! (amounts will vary on how many people give and at what amount).
Now some of you remember the launch of the "Gimme" application ( now "Group Gift") on Facebook that I mentioned earlier. What you need to understand is that application is only used as a "showcase" by the Socialwise to show the product to application such as Rock you (biggest application maker on all social networking sites) whom they have contracted with. Its kind of like how Sony usually sells its products through big companies such as Best Buy, Target, Wal-mart etc. but yet they have a few of their own Sony stores. As its not Sony's main business to be a retailer, it is not Socialwise plan to be one either.
IDAE then would receive around $10-$12 of the sale of that $100 gift card.
Best yet Socialwise (IdeaEdge) collects the proceeds, so no worries of companies not paying or trying to renegotiate.
But really thats not the plan, It gets much better...
On Facebook/Myspace (Joe Abrams former company) you can choose what applications you want to load on your homepage to personalize your experience. The best applications become the most popular ones. So rather than try to make 1 application to compete to use on Facebook, Myspace, Etc, IdeaEdge has decided to wholesale out the group gifting idea and split it with the top application makers. Not only does this eliminate IdeaEdges workload (building applications) but it puts that role of application design and ideas into the application makers (experts) hands. Now instead of having one application on Facebook with the group gifting platform, you have 20, 30, maybe more, all competing for the same audience, with IDAE getting a half of all of others efforts.
So how would an application work? It really depends on the idea, but one idea I heard was designing a "group Birthday card" that everyone "digitally signs" and writes in that includes a gift card. If you want to be a part of the birthday card, you would need to donate to the gift card. Thats just one idea, application makers are pretty amazing at coming up with unique ways to market.
A popular application will almost always have more than 4MM users (birthday calender has nearly triple that). So even if only one or two (of say 20-30) of the applications become popular, we still should easily see an audience of over 10,000,000 active users. What makes this unique is ALL application makers are very interested since all of them are trying to monetize social gifting. Nobody has monetized social gifting yet.
IdeaEdge is going to be the first company with a viable way to monetize group gifting...(read that again). Yes the first. Most of you probably dont even understand how big that is. It is huge. Remember back when search engines like Google were trying to figure out how to make money by indexing the internet? Once they did, it became a multi Billion Dollar industry. Same type of thing here.
If you understanding this business plan you should, right now, be extremely thrilled.
Now we need to look at some hard numbers on what IDAE can expect.
But before I get to that, let me give you the first important 2 numbers I want to talk about: 150MM+ users....this is how many people currently use social networking! Thats a pretty big audience. Companies pay billions to get in front of a target audience like that.
Now lets look at the next number: Gift cards are currently a $120Billion+(2006) annual industry.
How can IDAE (Socialwise) tap into this market in a realistic, not some "pie in the sky" way?
To answer this, First lets look at the competition and what they have done:
Blackhawk Network launched in 2002, and currently they are the number 1 in the gift card business. By their 4th year they had made $50MM in profit. The next year $90+MM. This is profit, not revenue. I have not seen revenue numbers, but typically profit is around 10-15% for a big company with thousands of employees like Blackhawk Network has. Even at 20% profit, that represents $250MM in revenue in their 4th year alone. At 10% profit that is 1/2 of a billion in revenue, which is far more likely than 20%. So in 4 short years in business, Blackhawk had captured $250MM-$500MM in revenue in an industry that is up 50% since they launched. Maybe you havent noticed, but gift cards are everywhere.
How did they do it? The right contracts and connections. If you look at Ideaedges connections and contracts, you can see they are positioning themselves much the same way (with Myspace and Facebook and aligning themselves with other big companies). These contracts for Blackhawk turned into a pretty good audience by their 2nd year. Their product was in front of millions by being at Safeway grocery stores checkout counter (I believe Safeway now owns Blackhawk). Instantly you had millions of possible customers walking by your product. Since then they have branched out into other stores.
Still their potential audience was no where near the 150,000,000 Socialwise will have from day 1! The one catch will be that although they have 150MM potential clients, the product will be somewhat hidden until those people hear about it. It would be like Blackhawk only having their gift cards at 1 checkout counter in Safeway. However whenever someone bought a gift card, Safeway announced it over the loudspeaker the gift cards location (essentially what Facebook and Myspace do).
Also note: people spend far more time on social networking per month than at a checkout counter at the store.
Whats more exciting is that IdeaEdge (Socialwise) profit will be double if not triple that of Blackhawk. Why? IDAE's super low overhead. Blackhawk needs thousands in employees to do what Socialwise (IDAE) can do with less than 20! Jim Collas believes the company can do nearly $1 Billion in revenue with just over 10 employees. There is no product to store, no employees to work where houses and setup, no applications to be programed. Very little will be done in house.
Now that we have looked at the industry, now lets get into realistic revenue that IDAE expects.
By 4th quarter 2009 (when the company should be producing revenue as per their plan) there will be 40,000,000 DAILY birthday alerts on social networking.
If IDAE captures a very realistic 1% (400K) of that daily market at an average of $7.50 per person ($5 - $50 is the range for gifting).
Revenue to IdeaEdge will be $161,000,000.
Is that realistic?
Consider that the revenue will (hopefully) be split between 20+ applications, or only 20K people per application. Again let me point out that the TOP birthday applications get 4,000,000+ daily users!
So, yes, not only is it possible, its pretty low end.
Using that line of thinking lets get more technical. Lets say that between all applications they were able to get 15MM monthly users (again very reasonable, The very top applications usually get this many each) that contribute (on average) $7.50 to a birthday/anniversary/wedding etc. per month.
Thats a cool $198,000,000 in annual revenue.
This is VERY realistic because whenever someone on Facebook or Myspace adds a application it will notify all of their friends that they joined that application (the average person has 120 friends). If they like it, they can also invite friends to try it. See how quickly this can grow?
Now the real question.
What does this mean for the stock?
Two fold:
First)
Once IDAE (OTCBB:IDAE) starts showing revenue like this, they will attract quite the attention from the (Wall) Street. Typically a companies stock will trade 10-100 times its profit. In bad times its lower, and good, its higher. Right now these markets have slammed companies and pushed some good companies below 50 times profit,Example: Amazon is trading at approx. 30 times profit. Many companies make 0 profit, or even losses, and they are still trading, so investors look for companies that have high profit margin or stability and rewards them (Amazon does not have a very high profit margin).
Since Amazon is a internet company that supplies products, let me compare it to IDAE's sector.
So lets be VERY generous and say IDAE trades for only 5 times its profit. (This is low since investors will pay a premium for a start up company that is making 25%+ profit margins like IDAE should.) A fair number would even be 10 to 15 times...but I want to under sell my point....
So at $200MM in revenue, IdeaEdge should clear over $50MM in profit.
$50MM profit times 5 = a $250MM market cap.
$250MM market cap divided by 45 Million shares = over $5.50 per share! Or 14 times your money from these levels!
Again these are "dumbed down" numbers, I actually think the numbers will come in MUCH higher.
You might be thinking "But couldnt that take years to earn that profit?"
Yes, but do you think 10-15 times your money in a few years is bad?
We are talking "tech boom" type numbers. You think another investment will do that? What others? Real estate? GM's, Siruis or AIG's stock if they rebound...even another small cap? Good luck. I like the chances here (seeing what IDAE has already accomplished)
That being said, markets move down here(on OTCBB) on anticipation alone! Just the anticipation of the idea that IDAE will do $50MM in profit the next couple years can drive the price sky high! So $5 a share could be realistic in the shorter term as well.
What you need to consider is that these numbers are assuming "Bill My Parents (BMP)" FLOPS!
As I said before, I think BMP is MUCH bigger and better than group gifting (and so does IdeaEdges management as well as just about everyone who has seen both plans)
Take the low end of BOTH of these plans, "Bill My Parents"and group Gifting and realistically on the low end we are talking about a $7+ stock.
The high end being in the $40's. I actually dont think thats unrealistic if the company hits its goals. Thats a $1000 return for every $1 invested from the bottom levels! In that case does it really matter if it takes 5 years?
Now back to earth:
The Second way to get your Return on Investment- ROI)
An acquisition. Being that Joe Abrams AND Maynard Webb are very good M and A's (mergers and acquisitions) specialists, I think this is a far more likely scenario. Also keep in mind, great ideas like this rarely ever make it to market anymore. A big company is far more likely to pay top dollar to acquire a company like IDAE than let a competitor get it. Especially if there is a bidding war. I have no doubt that companies are going to be salivating over "Bill My Parents".
Payment systems alone are a hot ticket, with "Bill me Later" being sold in November for approx $940MM and Paypal selling for 1.8 Billion in 2002, both in down markets! The key with these was not revenue, but the number of users they had. (Bill me Later had only 3MM users).
Maynard Webb, who was the COO of Ebay at the time of the Paypal purchase has openly said he thinks IDAE has a better plan and service!
Not to mention that IDAE has two plans, not just one. That means one could be bought out, leaving us with a dividend check of say $5 per share and we still keep the stock!
I personally think a buy out is very likely, and that would happen quickly once they start building clients. Main thing will be to get the platforms out and get users on board. This could happen quickly (in a few months) or it could take a few years. Company plans on being profitable this year, and April/May will be big months to see how they hit their goals. In the meantime, this stock remains a STEAL!
Hope this helps you understand the company you invested in even more.
Feel free to ask any questions.