Markets Rally... SCLW next?

We are seeing a strong rally continue on the general markets signaling this might not be a false Bull Run or a dead cat bounce, but an actual sustainable bull market. Jury is still out if this will hold, but indicators are that it will. Summers generally signal sell offs, yet we continue to see gains meaning people and institutions see many opportunities that are deemed to good to pass on.
What this means for the penny stocks is that people are ready to take risks again. SCLW has held its ground despite some opportunities for decline. With confidence back, its not going to take much to get people to chase the stock again. Look for some good news we know is coming to start this next push....
Let me know if you have any questions.

After a slow month, some more great News

A slow and uneventful month as we hold the line at the .65-.75 support level. Not A whole lot going on with the stock. However I did want to update everyone while I had the chance on some recent developments on the company.

Recently Jim Collas stopped by at a small private function; without shareholders to impress, that I was attending. Speaking and listening to him only confirmed my suspicion that the company is in the perfect position despite what we see in the stock price. Jim remains extremely optimistic despite the lull in the stock because he knows what is happening behind the scenes with regards to the company.
Im sure many of you understand that on the small caps (penny stocks), share price has little to do with how the company is performing. In most cases a run up in share price can make one think that the company is doing well, when the company hasnt done anything (in some cases the only thing they have done is fraudulent). What we saw last summer with SCLW was true in the regard that the company hadnt launched its product, yet the stock went from .70 to $2.75+. They hadnt done anything. It was running on anticipation OF Anticipation! Others run on a "PUMP AND DUMP". (If your not familiar with this term, please click on it.) Just to reiterate if SCLW was a pump and dump....we would be sitting under .05 right now....

However this also can be true in the opposite sense, as we have this summer where the company is hitting major accomplishments, yet the stock hasnt caught up. This has to do with many factors, one of the main ones being investors unwillingness to take as many chances in this environment. (The media/Wall Street is telling us how great the stocks are doing, knowing that most of the fundamentals havent changed for the better. Its a false rally. Possibly a "Dead cat bounce" type move.) This would be true of Hedge funds as well. They would rather make another "hot play" than sit on a stock that hasnt started a run yet.

Talking with Jim I got a feeling that something major is just on the horizon. One of the main underwriters was also at the gathering , whom I know, was saying the same thing about the share price, that positive things are happening. I think as the company begins to perform , we are going to see the strong buying come on in force that has been waiting for the right moment. This will spur the run as regular investors clamor in to avoid "missing out". Of Course the short sellers will also show betting on a drop, but that is to be expected....its still a "market". Think of it as Poker game. Big buying doesnt want to show its hand to early and risk loosing ground (on the stock price). As far as time line that I can gather... it still remains end of the year. But I had one individual tell me "it could happen at any time".
Jim is careful not to "cross the line" in information he disseminates however from the buzz I hear outside the company is that big retailers are lining up VERY excited about what BMP offers.
It is my understanding is that the only "hold up" when it comes to major retailers like Amazon signing, is that they want to know the bugs are worked out before going "all in" with time and money. This will open the door to smaller retailers testing the waters (so to speak) as the first full service line comes on. This is happening now with the likes of Artix (not really a small company). I think we will encounter a snow ball effect when this starts to roll. Once one major name comes on, you will see many others lining up. Keep in mind, the company is finally making money (small amount, but now producing revenue).

Every company that has seen how BMP works has been excited. No one has thought it was a waste or wouldnt work! Sure there has been a few negative blogs, but if you read the complaints (especially from parents) they have little idea on how this works and will work for them. They still think it just "allows kids to bombard parents with request".... this could happen if they raise spoiled kids and dont use the resources and parameters put in place, but couldnt be farther from the truth. Once parents understand how to use it, it becomes a tool they can use....even if it is only to let junior pick a gift out for his father on his fathers birthday using a limited budget. I could not tell you how many people I heard 5-6 years ago saying they would "NEVER allow their kids to have a cell phone"...yet due to convenience of calling home or a parent checking in with their teenager, they have changed their mind and now love it. I guarantee this will happen with BMP for the small amount of doubters (who raise the biggest stink.) I have yet to hear a parent, investor, or friend doubt that this is a GREAT product when they fully understand how it works. Not one.

Hope everyone had a great 4th...as things pick up, so will my blog posts. Again let me know if you have any questions.

SCLW- Another good day Tuesday?

I predicted Mondays run up earlier, and am going out on a limb to say we should see another big day Tuesday. Im thinking we will break $1.10 on over 150,000 as momentum continues. I think we have a few short sellers stuck in their positions to help seal the deal. Short sellers will generally always come in on a nice run like we have had. Now they are just getting squeezed. Now if short sellers get momentum, we could close down. Lets hope for the former.

Now coming! Socialwise Launch of BMP (Bill My Parents)

According to several sources outside the company, and in accordance with its time line, Socialwise is still on target to hit its launch date. The BMP platform is expected to be launched prior to the 60 day window ending Monday, May 25th. Although waiting till that Monday, wouldnt be all bad. It would give the market a full week to react prior to the weekend. However the buzz is it should hit sometime prior.

I expect with the launch we should see a large increase in volume on the shares, even from its current increase. Why? I have a feeling that many of the institutional buyers are still waiting till the product is out, to pull the trigger on a large position. This is coming from some comments I have heard over the last few months outside the company.

Despite the share price, believe it or not there is an awful lot of anticipation about IdaeEdges BMP launch in the investment community. Will it be easy to use? Will it work? Will the word get out quickly and grow exponentially? How will the media react?

These are all valid questions for the investment community to ask. I think the answer to these questions will all be positive.
I do know one thing, that this launch will be with the second version of BMP...right or wrong, I guess it could be labeled BMP 2.0. It is my understanding that they had a fully working version at the beginning of the year, but thought they could make it much better and easier, so they decided not to announce the launch of the first version. That would line up with Jim Collas' thinking. He (and the rest of the team) are always trying to improve on what they have. Now with the date looming, and the company on track, anticipation and excitment is at an alltime high.

Be excited folks, the future of Socialwise, and our investment, is nearly here.

Revised look at BMP - Bill My Parents

Bill My Parents- New Investor Media link

I have to tell you the first time I heard the idea back in June, IDAE was pursuing its other business plan simultaneously called Bill My Parents, I knew it was a home run. Jim Collas calls Teen, Tween credit/debit cards and payment systems the next frontier, just like cell phones for kids 10 years ago, and I must agree.

Like one financial guru once said "If you want to be extremely wealthy, all you need to do is find out where everyone is heading and get their first" IDAE is doing just that, putting themselves in a position to be first to market with a viable teen payment system.

Currently, Socialwise has focused the majority of their resources to Bill My Parents (BMP) because the management believes the BMP platform has a higher ceiling and marketability.

With a little research, its easy to see why.

Whats Bill My Parents?
BMP simply will allow a parent(s) to verify and approve/ disapprove a transaction of an item their kid(s) have requested. The next phase will include a debit card for kids that gives parents an enormous amount of control, and keeps it simple and convenient.

The first priority will be building an online store using a top retailer like Amazon to sell top selling products and offering the BMP platform as a payment option. This is perfect, since they will not need to try and find top sellers, or stock items, just use the retailer to promote their BMP product! Then BMP will get a cut of the sale, around 10%.


Lets break down the market.

First off parents are far more likely to buy non essential items for their kids then themselves, even if it means sacrificing their own desires. This is true even in a down market.

Lets look at one area of focus for the BMP product: video games, a multi, multi billion dollar industry.

Think about marketing a video game. Currently the video game companies need to try to target a small group in their advertising approach. Generally they cannot advertise to parents, since parents really dont always know which games their kids like. So what they stick with is marketing to late teens to early thirties to capture the market that will respond to the ad and have money to buy the product. This is their main market. Of course younger groups will see an advertisement and bug their parents till their parents buy it for them, but this is only a bonus.

You must note, some of these games, and gaming systems will sell out in hours or days. We are talking MILLIONS of copies at $30-$60 each (not including gaming systems and controllers which can easily hit $400 or more)

So what if a gaming company could advertise directly to the 10-18 yr. old group? Basically BMP solves this problem for every company in this situation. They can market right to the younger kids and advertise "Buy this now with BMP". With the excitement about this market, IDAE has secured lots of discounted ads. This is a nice first step.

Now lets put this into revenue terms, since really thats all we care about.

From the numbers that have been thrown out there, the big target for payment systems is 3 Million users. This is using other companies who have been acquired. With the BMP application alone, this could translate into about $900,000,000 in acquisition value alone, or better yet $18+ per share. (this does not include Ideaedge's social gifting platform only BMP)

How realistic is 3MM users?

With the marketing plan using the social networking platform, typically a “hot” application can reach over a million users in days. With the top applications reaching tens of millions in weeks. I think 3MM users through social networking and other ads in a reasonable time is VERY realistic. In fact, as great as this application is, I believe 3 Million is a very small number to the overall market. These are not hopeful numbers, but very realistic.

Now the other part of the BMP plan.

Bill my Parents Debit card:

Personally I think this is the golden Egg. The crème de la crème of the youth payment systems. A way to give your kid money, without giving them your card (Got your attention now?) Imagine loading your kids card with $200 and being able to:

- block undesirable merchants

- specify a safe merchant list that they can use,

- limit amounts at any merchant,

- monitor the card

- …oh and FREEZE (or unfreeze) the account at anytime with a simple text message or email. (When your kid gets grounded, why should they have the ability to spend money?)

Now add being able to simply add amounts to the debit card and parents have full control. These cards can be used anywhere MasterCard is used. Imagine the possibilities. I think this is where the company is headed for the long term. This in fact is a viable payment system for young people.

As far as numbers and profit, The market figures value at $1000 per user is reasonable for payment systems. So this means in terms of acquisition, 1MM debit card users would value that part of the business at 1 Billion. As far as profit, I haven’t been able to find any solid numbers, but you figure someone charging $1000 a year on average would be reasonable. (Note: this can be used for all a child’s purchases over a year, from school clothes and supplies, to gifts for friends and family). Credit card companies charge merchants anywhere from 1.5%-3%+ for transactions, so I would think realistic revenue from that would be anywhere from 0.5%-1%.

5 Million users = $250,000,000 - $500,000,000

10 Million users = $500,000,000- $1 Billion

I don’t see why the profit wouldn’t be at least 20% maybe higher given the outsourcing that Socialwise has (I think they are figuring at least that). If thats the case we are talking profit in the $50MM to $200MM plus range.

Compare just this one small part (the Debit card) of Socialwise to "Heartland Payment Systems"

Heartland does 85MM in EBITDA and still holds a market cap of over $300MM! (thats after a 50% decline in the last 8 weeks.)

Alone if the Socialwise Debit card achieved the numbers above and translated into a value of 350MM in market cap, that would spell out over $7 a share.

Are you beginning to see the big picture?

Now add that to the BMP platform (not to mention social gifting) and the numbers are staggering. This is a legitimate multi billion dollar company.

I think what is really exciting is this is just one business plan of IdeaEdge's that they are executing, and does not include social gifting which I already hit on earlier. Combined there is no reason in my mind they wont be able to rival a payment system such as Paypal.

Feel free to comment and ask questions.

Check out the site
Bill my Parents

Facebook a threat to Google

Socialwise is depending a lot on social networking. The good news is that it is a huge market.

Here is a great article about how: Facebook Can drive more traffic than Google

Here is a part of the article:
Facebook gets over a third of the number of unique visitors that Google does according to comScore. And it continues to grow. Compete shows the lines between Google and Facebook getting closer together: "It seems inevitable that, given Facebook's sheer scale (180 million registered users and counting), it would at some point start referring a lot of users to some sites, but the development is surprising," says AdAge's Michael Learmonth.

If Facebook's growth continues the way it has been, perhaps it should be considered Google's greatest threat (when I say threat, I mean competition) - maybe not in general search, but in terms of where advertisers are spending their money. Certainly in the foreseeable future, people will continue using Google to search, and advertisers will continue to spend money advertising with them (probably even more now that they are doing more targeting), but Facebook also targets, and it's not going to be overlooked. It could put a dent into AdWords revenue.


If Socialwise is the company monetizing Facebook, what do you think that will mean? Simply that Socialwise could be the tip of the advertising spear that starts the revenue motor for social networking. I think this could also paint them as a aquisition target for Google as well. By the way, as of their last filing Google is sitting on $8.5 Billion in cash. Aquiring a company like socialwise would be a cake walk, unless they had to bid against others like Amazon (1.7Billion in cash), or Yahoo ($1.8 Billion) or maybe even because of Maynard Webb...Ebay ($2.8Billion) . Keep in mind, these companies also have credit lines in the billions, so it wouldnt be risking their cash flow.... this is hopefully what would happen.

Feel free to post any questions.