This week despite heavier volume we were "flat" (broke even). Look at the chart, and you'll notice the seller waits for momentum and sells (this is better than just using a market order to sell it all, but its not helping us breath). A seller is still is in there, but I cant imagine he has much steam left. Buying continues to roll in not seen in months. We should soon see a breakthrough in this resistance. Overall you'll notice it wants to go higher. This is a good sign.
Its been an interesting couple of months to say the least. Unfortunately we were not as sheltered as we hoped from the general meltdown in the markets.
What I want to take a look at and comment on is the overall monthly share volume for IdeaEdge.
We had the biggest month in share volume since July in January. In fact following a monthly volume of only 373,659 shares in November we had two strong (selling) months in Dec and January of over 788K each. Obviously this was mainly sell volume and the results are the current level.
What else is interesting is that while majority of the 6 MM share float is held by investors using either Etrade or UBS (market makers) for the routing of the trades, both of those Brokers only combined for less than 200K of the 1.5+MM shares that traded hands in those two months. In fact if you go back 5 months, majority of the Etrade activity was buying. This tells me that the most of shareholders remain very loyal, and the selling is coming from a small camp. Im guessing its only been less than 10 shareholders overall that has put us here. Shareholders of record is still around 600, so you are talking probably less than 1% of them selling...amazing! (not that its comforting) Unfortunately these are bigger shareholders. You also have to factor in as its being sold off, you will get the poor shareholder that doesnt understand whats going on(that owns positions of say 1000 shares), dumping as well. Thats why I say probably less than 1%.
Now taking the lower share volume into consideration, you can see that without just a few of these sellers, this stock would be sitting over $3 right now despite the current markets!
Like everyone else, the problems with this stock started with the general markets (which effected most of us), add that to several people who got margin called, a otcbb stock with no "earth shattering" news, and your looking at the perfect storm.
Another interesting observation from these numbers is the fact that overall volume dropped significantly (as expected) with the general markets. People just stopped trading small caps in general. IDAE went from over 2MM+ shares monthly at its peak, to only 1/4 that number on average. Some of this was caused by a downward trend of the stock in general. The good news is we did not see a spike in volume associated with short sells Another great sign.
However this remained another major drawback. This meant when the sellers did show up, you had little buying behind them.
Back to the good news:Aside from a seller or two, it remains fairly quiet. Yet we have seen some strong buying backing it up. There has been some strong support as of late, and if the buying continues, the sellers will disappear and the stock will gain momentum. Remember all those traders that jumped on IDAE in the summer? I think theres a few waiting for an upward trend to jump in again.
I still think we see a return to old volume again once we see the Bill my Parents start running and Bite getting involved, with majority of that being buy volume (regardless of the general markets). I can say this because this should coincide with Bite's PR campaign. If you haven't read my blog on Bill My Parents, its a must.
Next week Ill be hitting the Social Gifting side of the business, I think you'll love the numbers and possibilities.